| Target name | Adopt measures to ensure the proper functioning of food commodity markets and their derivatives and facilitate timely access to market information, including on food reserves, in order to help limit extreme food price volatility |
|---|---|
| Indicator name | Indicator of food price anomalies |
| Global / Proxy indicator | Global indicator |
| Description of indicator |
Food price anomaly means market prices that are abnormally high for any particular period.
A food price index value greater than 1 indicates an unusual rise in food prices. Note that a value lower than -1 indicates an unusual fall in price, but this is not the focus of this indicator. The indicator detects abnormal food price increases of seven main food commodity (Food,Bread and cereals,Meat,Fish,Milk, Cheese and Eggs,Fats and Oils,Fruits,Vegetable,Candy, Jam, Honey, Chocolate and Confectionery,Other Food Products Not Classified Elsewhere) which covered in Consumer Price Index (CPI) according to the FAO's international methodology. The indicator directly evaluates growth in prices over a particular month over many years, taking into account seasonality in agricultural markets and inflation, allowing to answer the question of whether or not a change in price is abnormal for any particular period. Three levels are defined for the indicator: (IFPA)y < 0.5 is considered as normal price change, 0.5≤(IFPA)y < 1 is considered as moderately high price growth, (IFPA)y≥1 is considered as abnormally high price growth. |
| Unit | (Annual Price Anomaly Indicator Value) |
| Available disaggregation | - |
| Calculation |
Quarterly and annual compound growth rates of CPIs are calculated for each month.
For each target year, each preceding year is given a weight which is higher the closer it is to the target year. These weights are used to calculate the weighted means and standard deviations of the quarterly and annual compound growth rates. Annual and quarterly compound growth rates are standardised by subtracting the relevant weighted mean and dividing by the relevant weighted standard deviation for each month (similar to calculating z-scores, but using weighted data). The standardised quarterly and annual compound growth rates are combined into a single indicator value for each month. |
| Comparability | Comparable over time. Produced in full compliance with global metadata. |
| Revision | - |
| Other information |
This indicator identifies anomalous changes in market prices. The index relies on a weighted compound growth rate that accounts for both within year and across year price growth. The indicator directly evaluates growth in prices over a particular month over many years, taking into account seasonality in agricultural markets and inflation, allowing to answer the question of whether or not a change in price is abnormal for any particular period.
TurkStat measures of the inflation experienced by consumers, Consumer Prices Index (CPI), has been identified and confirmed as suitable for measuring changes in food prices by topic experts. TurkStat has followed the methodology in line with the UN requirements for this indicator, but has used different food groups to give a fuller picture for the Türkiye. This methodology assumes normal distribution, however compound growth prices of food may not be normally distributed. The further away compound growth prices are from normal distribution, the less useful they are as an indicator of food price anomalies. |
| Data source | TurkStat, Consumer Price Index (CPI, 2003=100) price and indice data |
| Data source link | https://data.tuik.gov.tr/Kategori/GetKategori?p=enflasyon-ve-fiyat-106&dil=2 |
For Surveys
| Sample coverage |
Population coverage: Index coverage of the population is the whole population of Turkey without any groupings according to income level or geographical areas. Geographical coverage: All of the final monetary consumptions of the households, foreign visitors and institutional population are taken into account. Price Coverage: Price coverage of index is constituted of purchasing prices. The prices of goods and services included within the index are retail prices including taxes but excluding any deposits and installments. |
|---|---|
| Sample size | In 2003=100 based CPI, all of the final monetary consumption expenditures made for the consumption of goods and services in the domestic markets are taken as bases. In the index 227 district centers consisted all of the 81 city centers are included. 608 594 prices are compiled from 28 852 outlets in a month and 5 246 tenants are included in the scope of the index. Number of outlets and prices can change during the year because of seasonality. |
| Interview method | Computer Assisted Personal Interview (CAPI) ; Compilation by using administrative data |
| Reference period for application of survey | Prices of fresh fruit, vegetables, fee paid for watching sport games (football), LPG, tube gas and 16 specific items are collected once a week; other prices are collected twice a month. Prices of cigarettes, jewelry (gold), diesel and petrol products are collected on daily basis. |
| Field survey time and duration | In all 12 months of the current year, data are collected every day in a month, 4 times a month, and for most of the items in the basket 2 times a month depending on the type of item. |