Indicator 17.13.1 Macroeconomic Dashboard

In order to provide a standardized instrument for monitoring the macroeconomic stability of countries, the World Bank has designed a Macroeconomic Dashboard including important macroeconomic indicators covering the external, financial, fiscal, and real sectors. The indicator selection builds on existing macroeconomic monitoring frameworks developed and used by international and regional agencies, such as the IMF, the WB, the ECB and the OECD.

To monitor each country’s trade and balance of payments situation, the dashboard includes indicators for the current and capital & financial accounts. Within the scope of the foreign sector, there are current accounts, capital and financial accounts, exchange rates. Financial sector indicators are necessary to measure the financial market stability of countries and therefore the economic stability of the country. Financial accounts that record money and money supply are at the heart of a country's financial system. It includes the real sector and prices, national accounts indicators and price indicators. Finally, within the scope of the unemployment dimension, the unemployment rate is included in the dashboard.

Available indicators are covered in this dashboard which are listed as follows:

Merchandise trade (% of GDP): This indicator is used as measurement for the Trade Openness of a country. Merchandise trade as a share of GDP is the sum of merchandise exports and imports divided by the value of GDP.

Current account balance (% of GDP): This indicator expressed by the Current Account as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP). Foreign trade statistics are compiled according to the special trade system before 2013, and according to the general trade system with the January 2013 publication.

Foreign direct investment, net inflows (% of GDP): This indicator expressed by the net incurrence of liabilities of the direct investement as a percentage of gross domestic product (GDP).

Portfolio investment, net (BoP, current US$): This indicator expressed by the portfolio investment on the net basis.

Total reserves in months of imports: This is an indicator of reserve adequacy, estimating the reserves in months of imports of goods and services. It basically shows the number of months a country can continue to support its current level of imports if all other inflows and outflows cease.

Total external debt (% of GDP): This indicator is calculated as Turkey's Gross External Debt as a proportion of GDP. Long-term public sector external debt data on a certain date are reported from the Undersecretariat of Treasury External Debt Information System, and this information is aggregated on the basis of each creditor and debt with short and long term public and private sector stock information received from the Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT). These stock amounts are reported by converting to US Dollars using the parities for the reference period. It is based on the ""face value"" stock compilation method in the International Monetary Fund's (IMF) External Debt Statistics Manual (EDS) (http://www.tffs.org/edsguide.htm) manual. In addition, Special Data Dissemination Standard (SDDS) reported to the World Bank within the framework of Turkey's Gross External Debt Stock of the data of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) Balance of Payments and International Investment Position Manual Sixth Edition Manual (BPM6) (https://www.imf.org/external/pubs/ft/bop/2007/bopman6.htm).

Official exchange rate (LCU per US$, period average annual): This indicator expressed by the average annual official exchange rate in terms of local currency unit. Broad money growth (annual %): This indicator shows the annual percentage change of the broad money supply (M3).

Broad Money Supply: Currency in circulation (Money and coins issued - Money in Banks) + Sight Deposits (TL, FX) + Time Deposits (TL, FX) + Funds received from Repo Transactions + Money Market Funds + Debt Securities (with maturity up to 2 years).

Broad money to total reserves ratio: This indicator shows the ratio of the broad money supply (M3) to the total gross reserves of the Central Bank.

Broad Money Supply: Currency in circulation (Money and coins issued - Money in Banks) + Sight Deposits (TL, FX) + Time Deposits (TL, FX) + Funds received from Repo Transactions + Money Market Funds + Debt Securities (with maturity up to 2 years).

Total Reserves: It includes Central Bank gold and FX gross reserves.

Bank nonperforming loans to total gross loans (%): This indicator is calculated by dividing the amount of non-performing loans into total gross loans granted by the domestic branches of banks.

Non-Performing Loans: Loans whose payment obligations are not fulfilled in 90 days from due date and classified as non-performing by the domestic branches of banks.

Total gross loans: Total amount of loans and non-performing loans granted by banks' domestic branches.

Bank capital to assets ratio (%): This indicator is calculated as the ratio of total equity to total assets of bank’s domestic branches.

GDP (annual % growth): Gross domestic product by expenditure approach is the sum of expenditures on all goods and services which are directly used in consumption and investment in an economy during a specified period plus value of the net export. Household final consumption, government final consumption, fixed capital formation, exports (less) imports of goods and services are the main components of this approach. Growth rate of GDP is defined as the percentage changes in GDP.

Gross capital formation (annual % growth): Gross fixed capital formation measured by the total value of a producer’s acquisitions, less disposals, of fixed assets during the accounting period plus certain specified expenditure on services that adds to the value of non-produced assets. Tangible fixed assets constitute the largest part of gross capital formation. These assets are examined in two sub-groups, machine-equipment and construction. The fixed assets are used in the production process for more than a year.

Household final consumption expenditure (annual % growth): The households final consumption expenditures include the expenditures made by the households for goods and services.

General government final consumption expenditure (annual % growth): The final consumption expenditures of general government consist of wages and salaries paid to employees employed by the government fulfil its services, benefits in kind and social and the expenditures related goods and services purchased from other sectors to provide this service.

Exports of goods and services (annual % growth): Exports of goods and services represent the value of all goods and other market services provided to the rest of the world. They include the value of merchandise, freight, insurance, transport, travel, royalties, license fees, and other services, such as communication, construction, financial, information, business, personal, and government services.

Imports of goods and services (annual % growth): Imports of goods and services represent the value of all goods and other market services received from the rest of the world. They include the value of merchandise, freight, insurance, transport, travel, royalties, license fees, and other services, such as communication, construction, financial, information, business, personal, and government services.

Inflation, Consumer Price Index (annual % change): Consumer Price Index (CPI) measures the changes of the current retail prices of goods and services purchased by consumers over a given time period. 2003 based CPI is aimed to calculate the inflation rate by using the change of the prices of goods and services existed in the market. In determining the weights and calculating the index, Classification of Individual Consumption by Purpose (COICOP) is used. Sources of weights are continuous Household Budget Survey, tourism survey, constitutional population expenditure survey and administrative records. Index coverage of the population is the whole population of Turkey without any groupings according to income level or geographical areas. All of the final monetary consumptions of the households, foreign visitors and institutional population are taken into account. Price coverage of index is constituted of purchasing prices. The prices of goods and services included within the index are retail prices including taxes but excluding any deposits and installments. Index is calculated by chained Laspeyres formulation. CPI is calculated as the percentage change rate of the index calculated in the relevant month compared to the same month of the previous year.

Unemployment rate (%): This indicator refers the unemployment rate by age group and sex.

Unemployed: Comprises all persons 15 years of age and over who were not employed during the reference period, had used at least one channel for seeking a job during the last four weeks and were available to start work within two weeks.

Before 2014, the reference period of job search was "last three months".

Labour force: Comprises all employed persons and all unemployed.

The unemployment rate is the ratio of unemployed persons within the labour force.

Revision Schedule for Balance of Payments: When disseminating the current month’s data except for December;

• Short-term external debt data and long-term private external debt data till the year 2002,

• For other items, current year’s data as well as previous year’s monthly data,

When disseminating the data of December, previous five years’ data of all the items will be subject to revision retrospectively. Apart from these; whenever a large-scale revision is needed in any data that compose the Balance of Payments Statistics, previous years’ data will be subject to revision by informing the public at large.

Broad money growth (annual %), Broad money to total reserves ratio: Relevant data is published temporarily at the end of the month following the reference period and finalized the next month. Whenever a large-scale and comprehensive revision is needed, previous years’ data will be subject to revision by informing the public at large.

On 31 August 2020, the GDP series was revised due to Foreign Trade and Balance of Payments. Indicator data will be revised depending on the revision in GDP.

www.turkstat.gov.tr/indir/metodolojikDokumanlar/yillik_gsyh_metod_en.pdf

https://www.tuik.gov.tr/indir/revizyon/2018_RBF_EN_UHD_YHG_YGSYH.pdf

TurkStat; Foreign Trade Statistics, Gross Domestic Product (GDP) Statistics, Price Statistics, Labour Force Statistics

Ministry of Treasury and Finance,

Central Bank of the Republic of Turkey (CBRT)

Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency (BRSA)